How the brewing Super El Niño will benefit various regions across the country

THE TAKEAWAY

While the El Niño climate pattern is expected to bring more dangerous storms across parts of the West and the South this winter, it could provide important relief to regions experiencing significant to historic levels of drought.

El Niño is expected to have a large influence on this winter across the U.S., with more storms expected from Southern California across the entire Southern Tier to Florida, according to NOAA's latest seasonal forecast. NOAA expects to declare Super El Niño conditions later this year, with an 83% chance of becoming the strongest El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950.

During a Super El Niño, the Pacific jet stream tends to become more extended and active, acting as a conveyor belt that directs storms farther across the southern tier of the U.S., the FOX Forecast Center said.

That pattern has already begun to manifest, with back-to-back weeks of widespread flooding across the Southwest.

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But despite the heightened flood threat, government forecasters said that the increased likelihood of a stormy pattern across the southern U.S. could help ease major droughts in the Southwest and the Southern Plains this fall and winter.

Parts of Southern California and the Southwest, in particular, remain mired in a decades-long megadrought. A megadrought is simply an extreme drought that lasts for multiple years.

According to NOAA, the period from 2000-2021 was the driest such span since megadroughts that occurred from the 800s - 1600s, with precipitation "8.3% below the 1950–1999 average" and a temperature that was "0.91°C above average."

One major consequence of this decades-long dry spell is the critical depletion of Lake Mead and Lake Powell, America's largest reservoirs. 

The lakes are primarily fed by the Colorado River, which helps supply water to roughly 40 million people across seven Western states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

After falling to record-low levels this summer, both reservoirs have seen a short-term rise due to the intense storms across the Southwest over the last two weeks.

Ahead of the impending Super El Niño, California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to mobilize state resources this winter ahead of an expected increase in flooding and landslides.

However, the state is also trying to take advantage of the stormy pattern.

"At the same time, efforts are underway to take advantage of precipitation this winter to help replenish groundwater basins for future water supply needs," the state's Department of Water Resources said in a statement.

The department added that it's ready "to take advantage of opportunities to capture, store, and move water when conditions allow, while maintaining flexibility to respond to changing weather and water supply conditions."

While El Niño typically leads to a wetter pattern across the Southern Tier, that doesn't always guarantee snow. Still, ski resorts across the southern and central Rockies are hoping that temperatures will be cold enough at higher altitudes to capitalize on El Niño-fueled storms and build a deep snowpack.

That's after warm temperatures contributed to a record-low snowpack across the Intermountain West last winter.

The San Juan mountains in Colorado saw around a foot of snow after last weekend's El Niño-fueled storm. 

The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in the California Sierra told FOX Weather it is opening early this year after recent storms produced nearly two feet of snow.

Vail Resorts, which has resorts across the West and New England, and is headquartered in Bloomfield, Colorado, has been eagerly anticipating Super El Niño since this summer.

"While no one can predict exactly what Mother Nature will deliver, the possibility of blockbuster snowfall has us feeling optimistic about the winter ahead," Bill Rock, President of Vail Resorts' Mountain Division, said in an August news release.

"And while we'd love to see Super El Niño live up to the hype, we're also taking an aggressive approach to snowmaking to ensure this ski season is one to remember," Rock added.

Additionally, snowpack across the Intermountain West is a primary source of water for the Colorado River and the broader Southwest year-round.

While not in the grip of a megadrought, drought conditions are ongoing across parts of the Southern Plains and Deep South, particularly much of Arkansas and Louisiana.

"For those areas of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas suffering through an extended drought, above-normal precipitation could be beneficial," the USGS Climate Adaptation Science Center said.

The National Weather Service office in Fort Worth, Texas, noted that it was already beginning to see drought improvement across North Texas.

"Looking ahead, the prospects for additional drought improvement are becoming increasingly favorable," the office said in October.

"Adding confidence to the longer-term outlook is the continued strengthening of El Niño, which is now expected to become a strong to very strong event during the upcoming winter."

"While meaningful drought recovery will ultimately depend on the frequency and coverage of future rainfall events, the transition toward a more favorable precipitation pattern suggests that additional drought improvement is increasingly likely through the remainder of fall and into winter," the office added.

El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.

Water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific, averaged more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in September, which is considered Super El Niño territory.

Temperatures have to remain 2 degrees above average for three months to officially be considered a Super El Niño event.

NOAA is expected to release its latest El Niño climate update next week.