Historic polar vortex disruption could arrive earlier than ever. Here's what it means for winter

THE TAKEAWAY

An historic polar vortex breakdown is on the rise, and it could come earlier than ever before. Here's what that means for winter weather.

Dr. Judah Cohen, an atmospheric and environmental research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), provided expert insight into the phenomenon on FOX Weather.

"This will be, I think almost undoubtedly, the largest, earliest disruption of the polar vortex on record," Dr. Cohen said.

This critical weather pattern could have a major impact on winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere.

The polar vortex is a massive whirlpool of frigid air spinning high above the Arctic in the stratosphere.

When it is strong, it helps trap the coldest air near the North Pole.

POLAR VORTEX: WHAT IS IT?

Atmospheric waves can stretch, weaken or even split the vortex, shifting the jet stream and allowing Arctic air to plunge farther south – spreading the chilly influence on the winter forecast.

The polar vortex may break down early, and forecast models suggest this disruption could make weather history.

Forecast models are signaling an unusually early and potentially significant disruption of the polar vortex in early November — one that could become the earliest major disruption or sudden stratospheric warming on record.

Dr. Cohen said the vortex is already showing signs of becoming unusually weak and stretched, with the larger disruption potentially influencing weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere from late November into December.

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This critical weather pattern could have a major impact on winter temperatures, jet stream patterns and snowfall potential across the Northern Hemisphere.

The unusually early polar vortex disruption could reshape the jet stream from late November into December, increasing the potential for cold outbreaks and snow across parts of the United States, Europe and East Asia.

In the U.S., the greatest potential for wintry weather would generally be east of the Rockies, although the cold could be brief, regionally limited or fail to develop.

Strong El Niño conditions generally favor a milder winter across North America, especially in the eastern U.S. 

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

However, El Niño would not prevent extended periods of cold or snow if the polar vortex disruption descends through the atmosphere and influences surface weather.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

For now, Cohen emphasizes that the timing, strength and eventual impacts remain highly uncertain.