Scientists monitoring Hawaii's Kīlauea for possible 56th eruption episode during first week of November

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano is on track to erupt once again in early November, roughly three weeks after its 55th eruptive episode concluded in mid-October. 

Kilauea began its most recent eruptive pattern on Dec. 23, 2024. Ever since then, episodes happened on a semiregular basis. 

The volcano was unusually inactive for two months between episode 54 on Aug. 25 and episode 55 on Oct. 17.

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U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists monitor the volcano's status on a daily basis in order to predict when the next eruption may occur. 

On Friday, the USGS said fountaining for episode 56 is most likely to begin between Nov. 2 and 9, after originally predicting the next episode between Nov. 1 and 7. 

The timing change comes partially because of how differently the buildup to episode 55 happened, making exact forecasting of episode 56 not fully possible. 

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The USGS said tiltmeters at the summit recorded positive tilt beyond levels typically seen before fountaining, which suggested continued pressurization of the summit magma chamber.

 Instead of rising consistently as it had prior to previous episodes, the tilt remained negative or relatively stable for extended periods of time prior to episode 55. 

During episode 55, which only lasted a few hours, lava fountained 720 feet in the air from the north vent. 

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On Friday, the USGS said Kilauea's west vent was showing strong glowing intermittently, while the north vent was showing a weaker glow. 

The south vent has remained dark since episode 55 when it was buried. 

Seismic tremors, slowly emerging seismic waves which may last for minutes or days when there are ongoing eruptions, were recorded on Thursday and Friday, according to the USGS. 

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Additionally, four small earthquakes of magnitude 1.5 or weaker were recorded in and around Kaluapele, Kilauea's caldera. 

Kilauea remains closely monitored as scientists continue to bring in data to work on a more precise eruption forecast.