May severe weather outlook: Pattern shift suggests quieter month after April’s stretch of destructive storms

Looking ahead to May, we typically see a rise in both the coverage and intensity of severe weather. On average, May experiences the highest number of tornadoes, around 278, which is nearly 80 more than April. 

However, forecasts indicate that the highly active pattern seen throughout April is likely to weaken this coming month.

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Although severe storms are still likely during May, the prolonged stretches of extreme weather may not be as significant as in recent weeks.

April was a remarkable month for severe storms and heavy rainfall across much of the central United States. In this month alone, there have been more than 260 reported tornadoes, with the highest concentration centered over the Midwest.

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Of the 260 reported tornadoes this month, 75 have been confirmed across seven states in just the last week. 

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This outbreak was headlined by a significant EF-4 tornado that struck Enid, Oklahoma this past Thursday, April 23. The tornado had peak winds of 170 to 175 mph and prompted a rare Tornado Emergency that same evening.

In the days that followed, numerous additional tornadoes were confirmed across the Central U.S. 

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This multi-day stretch also brought the full range of severe weather hazards, including large hail — some golf-ball-sized — and damaging winds, leaving communities reeling from widespread destruction. Families were displaced, structures were destroyed, and a few injuries were reported, including two fatalities.

Additionally, over the course of the month, there were four days with a Level 4 out of 5 severe storm risk, including a seven-day stretch with a Level 3 out of 5 risk. This marked the longest span since May 2024, when there were eight consecutive days.

This severe surge was driven by a large-scale pattern featuring a pronounced dip in the jet stream across the West and a ridge over the East, the FOX Forecast Center said. 

This setup allowed storms to track from the West into the Plains and then push northward into the Midwest. 

PHOTOS: VIOLENT TORNADO RATED AS EF-4 THAT TORE THROUGH ENID, OKLAHOMA, UNLEASHING DEVASTATING DAMAGE

As we transition from April into May, both the coverage and intensity of severe storms typically increase. On average, May experiences the highest number of tornadoes, with the greatest risk once again concentrated in the central Plains and the Midwest.

However, looking ahead to the upcoming month, the active pattern seen throughout April will likely weaken. 

A ridge in the jet stream is expected to develop over the West, bringing warmer and somewhat drier conditions. Meanwhile, a dip in the jet stream over the East and Northeast will allow cooler air to settle in. 

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

This change in the broader pattern could result in a quieter month than April. Severe storms are still likely in May, but extended periods of extreme weather may be less pronounced than in recent weeks.

MILLIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO SEE UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF MAY

Long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center for May point to above-average temperatures across the South and West. They also indicate higher-than-average precipitation in the Southern Plains, while most other regions are expected to experience near-average conditions.