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Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible as severe storms reload across Midwest, South to start May
Severe storms are reloading across the central U.S. this week, ushering in an active start to May.
After a volatile April, an unsettled pattern is taking shape across the Midwest and South, with multiple rounds of storms expected. By midweek, millions could face threats ranging from damaging winds and large hail to tornadoes and flash flooding.
Many of the same areas that were hit hard last month will be in the renewed threat zone, such as portions of Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas to name a few.
Just within this last month, there have been more than 260 reported tornadoes across the central U.S., with the highest concentration centered over the Midwest.
With many of these storms in part of a multi-day stretch, they brought a full range of severe weather hazards, including large hail — some golf-ball-sized — and damaging winds, leaving communities reeling from widespread destruction.
Families were displaced, structures were destroyed and a few injuries were reported, including two fatalities.
Starting Sunday, a weaker disturbance will move through the Midwest ahead of a larger area of low pressure over southern Canada.
By the afternoon and evening hours, a few severe storms may develop across parts of northern Missouri, southeast Iowa, and central Illinois, where a Level 1 out of 5 severe storm risk is in place.
With any storms that develop, the primary threats would be damaging wind gusts and hail.
The FOX Forecast Center also highlights that some forecast guidance suggests modest capping may limit storm development — meaning storm coverage could end up being more isolated than anticipated.
Come Monday, the persistent upper-level trough over southeastern Canada will continue to slowly move eastward.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with a trailing cold front extending into the central Plains.
That said, due to a tightening pressure gradient, gusty winds may develop along the front across the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley.
As this system slows and begins to spin up into Tuesday, the front may stall, allowing multiple rounds of moisture to track along it.
Looking ahead, the FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the potential for significant severe weather across the south-central U.S. beginning Tuesday.
A deepening area of low pressure over the Plains is expected to spark thunderstorm development across parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas and the Ark-La-Tex region by the evening, aided by rich Gulf moisture and a strengthening low-level jet.
Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible with any storms that develop, prompting a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm threat for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
EL NIÑO EXPECTED TO DRIVE ATLANTIC STORM ACTIVITY AS COUNTDOWN TO HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS
Additionally, this setup is expected to bring several days of rain beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through midweek, impacting areas from Kansas to Ohio. However, the heaviest rainfall is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.
Due to a slow-moving front and the risk of storms—multiple thunderstorms hitting the same area in rapid succession—a Level 1 out of 5 flash flood risk is in effect Tuesday for areas from eastern Tennessee to southern Indiana.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches or higher possible.
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