Warmer temperatures and severe storms on the horizon as we spring into March

In like a lion, out like a lamb. Let's take a look at what to expect throughout the month of March as we prepare for the transition to spring.

On the last legs of one of the harshest winters in years, it's not time to celebrate the upcoming arrival of spring just yet. 

While March marks the transition from winter to spring, it is often volatile and unpredictable, with intrusions of warmer air previewing a hint of summer and an uptick in severe storms.

After a brutal winter where prolonged cold spells and strong winter storms dominated headlines, the long-awaited return of milder temperatures and increased storm activity will likely garner attention.

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Though it is not time to take the top off the convertible and iron your favorite shorts, as much of the U.S. is not out of the winter weather grasp just yet with snow and shots of cooler air on the horizon.

In the shorter term, through the first week or two of March, the overall pattern is expected to feature a trough (a dip in the jet stream) across the West and a ridge across the East.

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This setup is reflected well in the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook, which highlights much of the central and eastern U.S. as trending above average for both temperatures and precipitation.

The expected unsettled, cloudy and cooler weather across the West will promote increased flow off the Gulf of America, raising the likelihood of precipitation and even severe storms.

Meanwhile, the primary storm track should remain west of the Appalachians, favoring near-average to potentially below-average precipitation along much of the East Coast.

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The greatest risk for severe storms in March stretches from the Central Plains eastward into Alabama and Georgia.

Texas, Alabama and Mississippi typically average the highest number of tornadoes during the month of March. Just last year, a tornado outbreak spawned more than 90 twisters across 13 states and left dozens dead.

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The CPC’s 3 to 4-week outlook continues to favor above-average temperatures across much of the central and eastern U.S. That said, an overall monthly trend toward above-average temperatures does not eliminate the possibility of winter weather or brief blasts of colder air.

Snow, ice and chilly conditions are still possible at times through March.

The month marks the arrival of both meteorological and astronomical spring.

There are longer, brighter days ahead.

Finally, as we move into the month, don’t forget the upcoming time change on Sunday, March 8. Clocks will "spring forward" one hour, and combined with the naturally lengthening days, much of the U.S. will gain nearly an hour to an hour and a half of additional daylight by the end of the month.