Timeline: Where Tropical Storm Isaias is headed and when it could become a hurricane
THE TAKEAWAY
Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the Atlantic on Wednesday morning amid the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 1966, with no hurricanes having formed so far this year.
The disturbance, formerly known as Tropical Depression Nine, has developed a closed circulation and become organized enough to be upgraded to a tropical storm.
The system currently has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is drifting slowly over the southwestern Gulf of America.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, conditions are expected to remain favorable for steady strengthening, setting the stage for potentially significant intensification.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts the system will strengthen into Hurricane Isaias by Thursday, which would make it the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Meanwhile, another surge of tropical moisture is expected to move into the Gulf Coast and Southeast, bringing another round of heavy rain to the region.
A Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk now in place across six states from Louisiana to South Carolina and into northern Florida. The WPC issued a Level 3 flood risk for Saturday covering Mobile, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle just west of Panama City.
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However, questions remain about how strong the storm will be at landfall and exactly where it will track.
The FOX Forecast Center said the next couple of days will be critical in determining how powerful the system becomes and where it heads.
Here is a timeline of what forecasters are expecting for the rest of the week.
Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, prompting tropical storm and hurricane watches to be issued across portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile, the system will be near the Yucatán Peninsula, where Hurricane Hunters are conducting routine low-level flights into the storm to gather critical data on its strength and structure.
The storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane over the southern Gulf of America.
Gusty winds and periods of heavy rain are likely across the western Yucatán Peninsula.
Hurricane watches could be upgraded to warnings as the storm approaches, while storm surge forecasts and information are expected to be issued.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the storm is expected to reach peak intensity as a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane.
Steering currents are expected to force the storm to make a sharp turn toward the northeast, causing the hurricane to accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast.
Heavy rain will begin Friday morning and increase in intensity throughout the day, while strong winds are expected to begin impacting the coast later in the afternoon.
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The threat of flash, urban and isolated river flooding will increase and could persist into the weekend.
Landfall is forecast for Friday evening, sometime before midnight.
How Saturday and Sunday unfold will depend largely on what happens during the previous two days.
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The FOX Forecast Center said a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather threat is in place for Saturday, with tropical tornadoes possible.
Rain and winds are also expected to gradually increase along the Gulf Coast as the storm moves north.
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