Exclusive analysis: El Niño likely to boost hurricane activity in Eastern Pacific this summer
With less than a month until the start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific Basin, exclusive analysis from the FOX Forecast Center found that the developing El Niño climate pattern will likely fuel a surge of named storms and hurricanes.
The FOX Forecast Center found that since 1990, even a moderate El Niño resulted in an above-average hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific 85 percent of the time.
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El Niño is one of three phases of a climate cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It describes natural temperature changes in the central Pacific Ocean that alter atmospheric circulation and can greatly influence global weather.
WHAT ARE EL NINO AND LA NINA CLIMATE PATTERNS?
El Niño describes warmer than average water across the equatorial Pacific, while La Niña describes colder than average water conditions, and ENSO neutral refers to a state where temperatures are close to average.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, while El Niño generally suppresses tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, the warmer sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes to develop in the Pacific.
Since 1990, there have been seven hurricane seasons with at least a moderate El Niño.
On average, the Eastern Pacific basin sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Category 3+). Those averages were significantly higher during El Niño years, which produced: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
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As of earlier this month, neutral conditions have taken hold across the El Niño zone in the Pacific, and NOAA expects El Niño to emerge sometime within the next six months.
In fact, experts believe this El Niño could be much stronger than the average event, with computer forecast models from both NOAA and Columbia's International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggesting that a "Super El Niño" could form.
The Forecast Center noted that while the exact timing of when El Niño develops is important, sea-surface temperatures are already 1–3 degrees above average, ahead of El Niño.
Even a moderate El Niño year, 2023, saw the rapid intensification of Hurricane Otis — the first Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific to make landfall.
"Fueled by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures, Otis underwent explosive rapid intensification, with central pressure dropping by 73 mb in 24 hours and winds increasing by 115 mph," the FOX Forecast Center said.
HOW DID HURRICANE OTIS' RECORD INTENSIFICATION CATCH ADVANCED FORECAST MODELS BY SURPRISE?
Otis devastated Acapulco, Mexico, killing at least 52 people and causing between $12 and 16 billion in damages, according to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) final report.
And while landfalling tropical systems are rare for both California and Hawaii, increased tropical activity can still have major impacts.
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As FOX Weather Meteorologists Britta Merwin and Craig Herrera noted Tuesday, moisture from tropical systems can easily be drawn into Southern California and the Southwest by different kinds of weather patterns.
2023 also saw the remnants of once-Category 4 Hilary funneled across Southern California and the desert Southwest, causing record-breaking rainfall over $900 million in damages across the U.S. and Mexico, according to the NHC.
Similarly, Hurricane Iniki made landfall in Hawaii as a Category 4 during an El Niño year, destroying the majority of homes on Kauai — underscoring the adage from FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross that it only takes one storm to create major impacts.
Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins on May 15 and runs through Nov. 30, with the first named storm typically forming around June 10.
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