Atlantic hurricane season falls behind schedule as strengthening El Niño suppresses tropical activity

We're one month into the Atlantic hurricane season, and only one tropical storm has formed, putting the season officially behind schedule with a strengthening El Niño to blame.

The first named storm of the Atlantic season, Arthur, formed on June 17, a week after the average first named storm typically forms. Since then, it's been quiet in the Atlantic, with no other tropical systems strong enough to have names.

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The average B named storm typically arrives by June 24 and the C named storm usually hits around July 6. 

The most recent hurricane forecasts by NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) call for eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes; and 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, respectively, this season.

Things are looking to stay inactive for at least the next week, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting no tropical activity in the next seven days.

Taking a look at the latest long-range tropical outlook from the Climate Prediction Center, it shows an 80% chance of below-average precipitation in the Main Development Region of the Caribbean.

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While it is usually too early to track large disturbances in the deep tropics, the FOX Forecast Center said this suppressed activity could be a precursor of things to come, driven by the onset of El Niño.

El Niño itself is no surprise to anyone, but the actual intensity of the event is much stronger than initially predicted, the FOX Forecast Center said.

If things continue as forecast, the CPC said this could be one of the most powerful El Niño events dating back to 1950. 

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The FOX Forecast Center said El Niño is going to continue to intensify as hurricane season progresses, with the most significant impact on the Atlantic hurricane season becoming the increase in hostile upper-level winds.

Whether the belt of hostile winds is a direct product of El Niño is too big of an open-ended question at this point in the game, the FOX Forecast Center said.

Regardless of that, the Atlantic is likely not going to see any significant tropical activity for the next few weeks.

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If it does, it will most likely occur north of the tropical hurricane belt.

The FOX Forecast Center said that waters in the Northern Gulf and off the Southeast Coast are not facing quite as hostile conditions as the Caribbean, so those will be the areas to watch out for any possible tropical activity in July.

Overall, the big picture is that El Niño is successfully keeping the Atlantic hurricane season at bay for now.